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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
NORTHERN DELAWARE
CENTRAL MARYLAND
WESTERN NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUM TO 20 MILES NORTH OF
ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 563...
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FORMING OVER E EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM NRN VA INTO SE PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 90S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG PER THE 18Z IAD SOUNDING...AND ROUGHLY 30 KT
LOW-MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW...THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW
DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 26020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 564 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 051940Z - 060100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40SSW DCA/WASHINGTON DC/ - 20N ABE/ALLENTOWN PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /33SE CSN - 24NNE ETX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.
LAT...LON 38317859 40937676 40937408 38317601
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 564 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 564
VALID 052340Z - 060040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E DOV TO
20 S PHL TO 15 SW TTN TO 25 N TTN TO 35 NW EWR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
..JIRAK..08/05/12
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 564
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-060040-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT
$$
NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-
060040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH
MORRIS OCEAN SALEM
SOMERSET SUSSEX
$$
ANZ431-060040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 564
VALID 052150Z - 052240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SHD TO
45 NE CHO TO 35 WSW DCA TO 15 WNW DCA TO 15 WNW BWI TO 30 N BWI
TO 30 ESE CXY TO 35 WSW ABE TO 25 WNW ABE TO 20 SSW AVP.
..JIRAK..08/05/12
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 564
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-052240-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE
$$
DCC001-052240-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$
MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-510-
052240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES
HARFORD HOWARD KENT
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S
ST. MARYS TALBOT
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
$$
NJC007-011-015-019-021-027-033-035-037-041-052240-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS
SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX
WARREN
$$
PAC011-017-025-029-045-077-089-091-095-101-052240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH
MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA
$$
VAC003-013-015-047-059-079-099-107-113-125-137-153-177-179-510-
540-600-610-630-683-790-820-052240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA
CULPEPER FAIRFAX GREENE
KING GEORGE LOUDOUN MADISON
NELSON ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM
SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS
STAUNTON WAYNESBORO
$$
ANZ430-530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542-543-
052240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD
EASTERN BAY
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 564
VALID 052030Z - 052140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..08/05/12
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 564
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-052140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE
$$
DCC001-052140-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$
MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-
041-510-052140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL
CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD
HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY
PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS
TALBOT
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
$$
NJC007-011-015-019-021-027-033-035-037-041-052140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS
SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX
WARREN
$$
PAC011-017-025-029-043-045-071-075-077-089-091-095-101-107-133-
052140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER DAUPHIN DELAWARE
LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH
MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL YORK
$$
VAC003-013-015-047-059-061-079-099-107-113-125-137-139-153-157-
165-177-179-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685-790-820-052140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA
CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER
GREENE KING GEORGE LOUDOUN
MADISON NELSON ORANGE
PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK
ROCKINGHAM SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG
MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON
WAYNESBORO
$$
ANZ430-530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542-543-
052140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD
EASTERN BAY
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.