Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 25 MILES NORTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...WW 56...
DISCUSSION...A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS
NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR...FEATURING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500
J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-600
M2/S2. TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER SERN
MO/W-CNTRL IL ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 57 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 021555Z - 030000Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50S CGI/CAPE GIRARDEAU MO/ - 25N DNV/DANVILLE IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /31NNW DYR - 24W BVT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
LAT...LON 36499119 40548930 40548588 36498794
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 57 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 57
VALID 022125Z - 022240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE POF TO
15 N PAH TO 35 NW MIE.
..HURLBUT..03/02/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC069-127-151-022240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN MASSAC POPE
$$
INC051-101-105-125-129-147-163-173-022240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON MARTIN MONROE
PIKE POSEY SPENCER
VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-022240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC133-143-022240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 57
VALID 022030Z - 022140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE POF
TO 20 SSE MDH TO 50 SSE MTO TO 35 NE LAF.
..HURLBUT..03/02/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-185-193-022140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS GALLATIN
HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC
POPE PULASKI SALINE
WABASH WHITE
$$
INC011-015-021-023-027-051-055-057-063-067-081-083-097-101-105-
107-109-119-125-129-133-147-153-157-159-163-167-173-022140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CARROLL CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS GIBSON
GREENE HAMILTON HENDRICKS
HOWARD JOHNSON KNOX
MARION MARTIN MONROE
MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWEN
PIKE POSEY PUTNAM
SPENCER SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE
TIPTON VANDERBURGH VIGO
WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-022140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC133-143-022140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 57
VALID 021930Z - 022040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE POF
TO 20 E MDH TO 20 N LAF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 211
..HURLBUT..03/02/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-023-033-047-059-069-079-087-101-127-151-153-159-165-185-
193-022040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER CLARK CRAWFORD
EDWARDS GALLATIN HARDIN
JASPER JOHNSON LAWRENCE
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
RICHLAND SALINE WABASH
WHITE
$$
INC011-015-021-023-027-045-051-055-057-063-067-081-083-097-101-
105-107-109-119-121-125-129-133-147-153-157-159-163-165-167-171-
173-022040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CARROLL CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS FOUNTAIN
GIBSON GREENE HAMILTON
HENDRICKS HOWARD JOHNSON
KNOX MARION MARTIN
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
OWEN PARKE PIKE
POSEY PUTNAM SPENCER
SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE TIPTON
VANDERBURGH VERMILLION VIGO
WARREN WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-022040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC133-143-022040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 57
VALID 021835Z - 021940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW ARG TO
30 WSW MDH TO 5 NW SLO TO 10 NW MTO TO 30 NW LAF.
..HURLBUT..03/02/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-023-025-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-055-059-065-069-077-
079-081-087-101-127-145-151-153-159-165-181-183-185-191-193-199-
021940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER CLARK CLAY
COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND
DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS
EFFINGHAM FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAWRENCE MASSAC PERRY
POPE PULASKI RICHLAND
SALINE UNION VERMILION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC011-015-021-023-027-045-051-055-057-063-067-081-083-097-101-
105-107-109-119-121-125-129-133-147-153-157-159-163-165-167-171-
173-021940-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CARROLL CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS FOUNTAIN
GIBSON GREENE HAMILTON
HENDRICKS HOWARD JOHNSON
KNOX MARION MARTIN
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
OWEN PARKE PIKE
POSEY PUTNAM SPENCER
SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE TIPTON
VANDERBURGH VERMILLION VIGO
WARREN WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-021940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-133-143-201-207-021940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID SCOTT
STODDARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 57
VALID 021730Z - 021840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE UNO
TO 25 SSE BMI.
..HURLBUT..03/02/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-
055-059-065-069-077-079-081-087-101-115-121-127-133-135-139-145-
147-151-153-157-159-163-165-173-181-183-185-189-191-193-199-
021840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CHAMPAIGN
CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY
CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD
CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR
EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN JACKSON JASPER
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE
MACON MARION MASSAC
MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE
PERRY PIATT POPE
PULASKI RANDOLPH RICHLAND
ST. CLAIR SALINE SHELBY
UNION VERMILION WABASH
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC011-015-021-023-027-045-051-055-057-063-067-081-083-097-101-
105-107-109-119-121-125-129-133-147-153-157-159-163-165-167-171-
173-021840-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CARROLL CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS FOUNTAIN
GIBSON GREENE HAMILTON
HENDRICKS HOWARD JOHNSON
KNOX MARION MARTIN
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
OWEN PARKE PIKE
POSEY PUTNAM SPENCER
SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE TIPTON
VANDERBURGH VERMILLION VIGO
WARREN WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-021840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-093-123-133-143-157-181-186-187-201-207-223-
021840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER IRON MADISON
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY
RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
High (80%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (60%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.