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Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699
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WW0699 Radar
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low

Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
   SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 699
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   240 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
          SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
   1100 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
   STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA TO 30 MILES NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY NEW
   YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT
   FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY.  AREA VAD DATA INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF 40-50 KT WLY WINDS IN THE
   MIDLEVELS OVER NRN PA/SRN NY WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
   DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...INSTABILITY
   INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   DEVELOPING LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. A TORNADO WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT
   WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH NERN PA/SERN NY.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27030.
   
   
   ...MEAD
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