Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 155 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF
HOUSTON TEXAS TO 10 MILES EAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 210. WATCH NUMBER 210 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 155 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 207...WW 211...
DISCUSSION...BACK-BUILDING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...WITH CONVECTION
MAINTAINED BY 40 KT SSWLY LLJ AND LOW 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND
MUCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 212 SEVERE TSTM LA TX CW 260655Z - 261200Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45N HOU/HOUSTON TX/ - 10E LFT/LAFAYETTE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /21N IAH - 31WSW BTR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29020.
REPLACES WW 210..LA TX
LAT...LON 31029527 30929180 29479180 29579527
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 212 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 212
VALID 261200Z - 261340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LCH
TO 10 SE LCH TO 10 ENE LFT.
..DIAL..04/26/11
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC023-055-113-261340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CAMERON LAFAYETTE VERMILION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 212
VALID 260945Z - 261040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT TO
45 NNW BPT TO 25 NNW LCH TO 20 NNE LFT.
..DIAL..04/26/11
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-019-023-053-055-113-261040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA CALCASIEU CAMERON
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE VERMILION
$$
TXC199-245-361-261040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JEFFERSON ORANGE
$$
GMZ430-432-261040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 212
VALID 260855Z - 260940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BPT
TO 45 ESE UTS TO 35 SW POE TO 35 SSE ESF.
..DIAL..04/26/11
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-011-019-023-039-053-055-097-113-260940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD
CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY
VERMILION
$$
TXC199-245-361-260940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JEFFERSON ORANGE
$$
GMZ430-432-260940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 212
VALID 260800Z - 260940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE UTS
TO 15 SE POE.
..DIAL..04/26/11
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-053-055-097-113-260940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
ST. LANDRY VERMILION
$$
TXC071-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-361-260940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMBERS HARDIN HARRIS
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE
$$
GMZ335-430-432-260940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.