Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS TO 45 MILES EAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 157...WW 159...WW
160...WW 161...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY
INTENSIFIED IN RESPONSE TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING ERN OK. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR REMAIN OVER THE ARKLATEX...AND SHOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 162 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 200445Z - 201000Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40NNW TYR/TYLER TX/ - 45E ELD/EL DORADO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /54WNW GGG - 35E ELD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 33549566 33869204 32569204 32229566
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 162 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 162
VALID 200740Z - 200840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
BUT...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND THE WATCH MAY BE
CANCELLED EARLY.
..KERR..04/20/11
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-200840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
UNION
$$
LAC015-017-027-061-111-119-200840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
LINCOLN UNION WEBSTER
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-449-459-499-200840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 162
VALID 200630Z - 200740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/20/11
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-200740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
UNION
$$
LAC015-017-027-061-111-119-200740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
LINCOLN UNION WEBSTER
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-449-459-499-200740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 162
VALID 200540Z - 200640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/20/11
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-200640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
UNION
$$
LAC015-017-027-061-111-119-200640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
LINCOLN UNION WEBSTER
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-449-459-499-200640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.