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SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF ALTOONA
PENNSYLVANIA TO 55 MILES EAST OF HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...WW 151...
DISCUSSION...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER ERN PA/NJ ARE
INDICATIVE OF INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER WRN VA /N OF ROA/. WHILE
AMBIENT AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
EXTREME VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE A RISK FOR BOWING AND/OR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20045.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 152 TORNADO DE MD NJ PA CW 162040Z - 170300Z
AXIS..35 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30W AOO/ALTOONA PA/ - 55E CXY/HARRISBURG PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 30NM N/S /3SW JST - 23SSW ETX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20045.
LAT...LON 40797887 40727580 39707580 39777887
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 152 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 152
VALID 170230Z - 170340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ILG TO
35 SW ABE TO 25 WNW ABE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 465
..COHEN..04/17/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-170340-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-170340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC011-015-033-170340-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER SALEM
$$
PAC029-045-170340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DELAWARE
$$
ANZ430-170340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 152
VALID 170150Z - 170240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BWI
TO 30 E CXY TO 45 SE IPT.
..COHEN..04/17/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-170240-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-170240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC011-015-033-170240-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER SALEM
$$
PAC011-029-045-107-170240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS CHESTER DELAWARE
SCHUYLKILL
$$
ANZ430-170240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 152
VALID 170040Z - 170140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E HGR TO
30 SSE IPT.
..COHEN..04/17/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-170140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-170140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC011-015-033-170140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER SALEM
$$
PAC011-029-043-045-071-075-107-133-170140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS CHESTER DAUPHIN
DELAWARE LANCASTER LEBANON
SCHUYLKILL YORK
$$
ANZ430-170140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 152
VALID 162345Z - 170040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HGR TO 30 E
UNV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 461
..COHEN..04/16/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-170040-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-170040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC011-015-033-170040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER SALEM
$$
PAC001-011-029-041-043-045-055-067-071-075-099-107-109-133-
170040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BERKS CHESTER
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE
FRANKLIN JUNIATA LANCASTER
LEBANON PERRY SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER YORK
$$
ANZ430-170040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 152
VALID 162245Z - 162340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 461
..COHEN..04/16/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-162340-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-162340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC011-015-033-162340-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER SALEM
$$
PAC001-009-011-013-029-041-043-045-055-057-061-067-071-075-087-
099-107-109-133-162340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS
BLAIR CHESTER CUMBERLAND
DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN
FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA
LANCASTER LEBANON MIFFLIN
PERRY SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
YORK
$$
ANZ430-162340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 152
VALID 162140Z - 162240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/16/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-162240-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-162240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC011-015-033-162240-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER SALEM
$$
PAC001-009-011-013-029-041-043-045-055-057-061-067-071-075-087-
099-107-109-133-162240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS
BLAIR CHESTER CUMBERLAND
DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN
FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA
LANCASTER LEBANON MIFFLIN
PERRY SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
YORK
$$
ANZ430-162240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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