Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 450 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CHAMPAIGN
ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 744...WW 745...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTH ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT MOVING ESE
FROM CNTRL/SW MO. FRONTAL UPLIFT AND LARGER SCALE UVV MAY BE
ENHANCED WITH TIME AS SECOND IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CNTRL PLNS CONTINUES EWD AND GLANCES
FRONTAL ZONE. VERY STRONG DEEP WIND FIELD...SEASONABLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW...AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT
FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL/WIND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 746 TORNADO IL MO 222250Z - 230600Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30N CMI/CHAMPAIGN IL/ - 50SSE SGF/SPRINGFIELD MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /51NNE DEC - 51SSE SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.
LAT...LON 40458694 36549176 36549430 40458961
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 746 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 746
VALID 230440Z - 230540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW FLP
TO 20 WSW SLO.
..GARNER..11/23/10
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC023-025-029-033-035-045-049-079-101-121-157-159-189-230540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLAY COLES
CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR
EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE
MARION RANDOLPH RICHLAND
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC091-093-123-149-153-179-186-187-203-230540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWELL IRON MADISON
OREGON OZARK REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SHANNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 746
VALID 230330Z - 230440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE HRO TO
20 WSW MTO TO 15 SSE DNV.
..MEAD..11/23/10
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC023-025-027-029-033-035-045-049-051-079-101-121-157-159-163-
189-230440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND
EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
JASPER LAWRENCE MARION
RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC091-093-123-149-153-179-186-187-203-230440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWELL IRON MADISON
OREGON OZARK REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SHANNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 746
VALID 230235Z - 230340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW UMN
TO 25 SW STL TO 25 E BMI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067
..GARNER..11/23/10
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-051-079-
101-115-117-119-121-133-135-139-147-157-159-163-173-183-189-
230340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND
DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE JASPER
LAWRENCE MACON MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PIATT
RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR
SHELBY VERMILION WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-055-065-067-071-091-093-099-123-149-153-161-179-183-
186-187-189-203-209-213-215-221-225-229-510-230340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON
MADISON OREGON OZARK
PHELPS REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 746
VALID 230135Z - 230240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW UMN TO
20 N STL TO 10 E BMI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067
..GARNER..11/23/10
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-051-079-
101-115-117-119-121-133-135-139-147-157-159-163-173-183-189-
230240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND
DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE JASPER
LAWRENCE MACON MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PIATT
RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR
SHELBY VERMILION WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-055-065-067-071-091-093-099-123-149-153-161-179-183-
186-187-189-203-209-213-215-221-225-229-510-230240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON
MADISON OREGON OZARK
PHELPS REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 746
VALID 230030Z - 230140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..11/23/10
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 746
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-051-
079-083-101-115-117-119-121-133-135-139-147-157-159-163-173-183-
189-230140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CHAMPAIGN
CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY
CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD
CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS
EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE
MACON MACOUPIN MADISON
MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY
MOULTRIE PIATT RANDOLPH
RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY
VERMILION WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-029-043-055-059-065-067-071-073-077-091-093-099-105-109-
113-119-123-125-131-139-149-151-153-161-169-179-183-186-187-189-
203-209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-230140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
CRAWFORD DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE
GREENE HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
LINCOLN MCDONALD MADISON
MARIES MILLER MONTGOMERY
OREGON OSAGE OZARK
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS SHANNON STONE
TANEY TEXAS WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.