Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY EVENING FROM 640 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAINT
CLOUD MINNESOTA TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANKATO MINNESOTA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 602...WW 603...
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING NEWD AT 40-45 KT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO E CENTRAL MN AND THE MSP AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS E CENTRAL MN IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE OF THE
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN W CENTRAL MN BEYOND ABOUT 01Z GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW APPROACHING
CENTRAL MN. STILL...THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY COULD PROMOTE MAINLY BRIEF TORNADOES AS IT AND THE LINE OF
STORMS INTERACT THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 604 TORNADO MN WI 122340Z - 130400Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NE STC/SAINT CLOUD MN/ - 30SW MKT/MANKATO MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /34SE BRD - 48SE RWF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 45909208 43909294 43909575 45909498
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 604 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 604
VALID 130235Z - 130340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BOTHWELL..08/13/10
ATTN...WFO...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 604
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-009-013-015-019-025-037-049-053-059-065-079-085-095-097-
103-123-131-139-141-143-147-161-163-165-171-130340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH
BROWN CARVER CHISAGO
DAKOTA GOODHUE HENNEPIN
ISANTI KANABEC LE SUEUR
MCLEOD MILLE LACS MORRISON
NICOLLET RAMSEY RICE
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WRIGHT
$$
WIC093-095-109-130340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PIERCE POLK ST. CROIX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 604
VALID 130135Z - 130240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662
..BOTHWELL..08/13/10
ATTN...WFO...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 604
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-009-013-015-019-025-037-049-053-059-065-079-085-095-097-
103-123-131-139-141-143-147-161-163-165-171-130240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH
BROWN CARVER CHISAGO
DAKOTA GOODHUE HENNEPIN
ISANTI KANABEC LE SUEUR
MCLEOD MILLE LACS MORRISON
NICOLLET RAMSEY RICE
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WRIGHT
$$
WIC093-095-109-130240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PIERCE POLK ST. CROIX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.