SEL1
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          A SMALL PART OF EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS
          CENTRAL MISSOURI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1220 PM UNTIL 400 PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF OLATHE
   KANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE
   DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...
   
   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG A WNW-ESE ORIENTED
   BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS BEING MAXIMIZED.  THE
   ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO THE OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS
   SHOULD ALLOW THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO RESIDE WITHIN A FAVORABLY
   SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS
   SUCH...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO EXIST WITH
   ANY MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  WITH TIME...ACTIVITY MAY
   GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
   
   
   ...MEAD

   SEL1
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          A SMALL PART OF EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS
          CENTRAL MISSOURI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1220 PM UNTIL 400 PM CDT.
   
   SEVERAL TORNADOES
   WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
   SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
   ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF OLATHE
   KANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE
   DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...
   
   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG A WNW-ESE ORIENTED
   BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS BEING MAXIMIZED.  THE
   ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO THE OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS
   SHOULD ALLOW THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO RESIDE WITHIN A FAVORABLY
   SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS
   SUCH...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO EXIST WITH
   ANY MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  WITH TIME...ACTIVITY MAY
   GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
   
   
   ...MEAD

   SEL1
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          A SMALL PART OF EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS
          CENTRAL MISSOURI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1220 PM UNTIL 400 PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF OLATHE
   KANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE
   DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...
   
   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG A WNW-ESE ORIENTED
   BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS BEING MAXIMIZED.  THE
   ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO THE OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS
   SHOULD ALLOW THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO RESIDE WITHIN A FAVORABLY
   SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS
   SUCH...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO EXIST WITH
   ANY MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  WITH TIME...ACTIVITY MAY
   GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
   
   
   ...MEAD

   WOUS64 KWNS 111715
   WOU1
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010
   
   TORNADO WATCH 451 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   KSC091-107-121-112100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0451.100711T1720Z-100711T2100Z/
   
   KS 
   .    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   JOHNSON              LINN                MIAMI               
   
   
   MOC013-015-019-027-029-037-051-053-055-071-073-083-085-099-101-
   125-131-135-139-141-151-159-161-169-183-185-189-219-221-510-
   112100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0451.100711T1720Z-100711T2100Z/
   
   MO 
   .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BATES                BENTON              BOONE               
   CALLAWAY             CAMDEN              CASS                
   COLE                 COOPER              CRAWFORD            
   FRANKLIN             GASCONADE           HENRY               
   HICKORY              JEFFERSON           JOHNSON             
   MARIES               MILLER              MONITEAU            
   MONTGOMERY           MORGAN              OSAGE               
   PETTIS               PHELPS              PULASKI             
   ST. CHARLES          ST. CLAIR           ST. LOUIS           
   WARREN               WASHINGTON          
   
   
   MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ST. LOUIS CITY       
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...
   
   
   

   SAW1 
   WW 451 TORNADO KS MO 111720Z - 112100Z
   AXIS..30 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   20S OJC/OLATHE KS/ - 30S STL/SAINT LOUIS MO/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 25NM N/S /21NNW BUM - 33S STL/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
   
   LAT...LON 38999473 38759037 37889037 38139473
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU1.
   

Watch 451 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 451

VALID 111930Z - 112040Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252

..WEISS..07/11/10

ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...LSX...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 451 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC091-107-121-112040-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

JOHNSON 	     LINN		 MIAMI		     
$$


MOC013-015-019-027-029-037-051-053-055-071-073-083-085-099-101-
125-131-135-139-141-151-159-161-169-183-185-189-219-221-510-
112040-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BATES		     BENTON		 BOONE		     
CALLAWAY	     CAMDEN		 CASS		     
COLE		     COOPER		 CRAWFORD	     
FRANKLIN	     GASCONADE		 HENRY		     
HICKORY 	     JEFFERSON		 JOHNSON	     
MARIES		     MILLER		 MONITEAU	     
MONTGOMERY	     MORGAN		 OSAGE		     
PETTIS		     PHELPS		 PULASKI	     
ST. CHARLES	     ST. CLAIR		 ST. LOUIS	     
WARREN		     WASHINGTON 	 


MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ST. LOUIS CITY	     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.