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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 PM CDT THU MAY 6 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 920 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF EMPORIA KANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHENANDOAH
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 141...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG
AND N OF WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO WRN
MO. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS ACROSS NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED TO
BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL AND LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG CENTRAL NE/KS BORDER WILL TRACK ENEWD
ACROSS SERN NE INTO SWRN IA OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 142 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 070220Z - 071000Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60ESE EMP/EMPORIA KS/ - 15NW SDA/SHENANDOAH IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /36WSW BUM - 17SSE OVR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 37979672 40889725 40889400 37979359
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 142 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 142
VALID 070940Z - 071000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SZL
TO 35 ENE MKC TO 15 WSW CDJ.
WW 142 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 071000Z.
..PETERS..05/07/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC033-079-117-129-177-071000-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL GRUNDY LIVINGSTON
MERCER RAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 142
VALID 070900Z - 070940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SZL
TO 5 W MKC TO 35 W LWD TO 5 S LWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 493.
..PETERS..05/07/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC025-033-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-117-129-177-227-070940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CARROLL CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
LIVINGSTON MERCER RAY
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 142
VALID 070735Z - 070840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SZL
TO 40 WNW EMP TO 20 S BIE TO 5 SSE FNB TO 15 SW SDA TO LWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 492.
..PETERS..05/07/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-013-043-045-085-087-103-117-127-131-139-149-177-197-209-
070840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS JACKSON JEFFERSON
LEAVENWORTH MARSHALL MORRIS
NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE
SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-005-021-025-033-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-117-129-
147-165-177-227-070840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT LIVINGSTON MERCER
NODAWAY PLATTE RAY
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 142
VALID 070635Z - 070740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SZL
TO 15 WNW OJC TO 45 SSW OJC TO 35 W EMP.
..PETERS..05/07/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC053-071-145-159-173-070740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR FREMONT PAGE
RINGGOLD TAYLOR
$$
KSC005-013-043-045-059-085-087-103-111-117-127-131-139-149-177-
197-209-070740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON LEAVENWORTH LYON
MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA
OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-005-021-025-033-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-117-129-
147-165-177-227-070740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT LIVINGSTON MERCER
NODAWAY PLATTE RAY
WORTH
$$
NEC067-095-097-127-131-133-147-151-070740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 142
VALID 070535Z - 070640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/07/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC053-071-145-159-173-070640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR FREMONT PAGE
RINGGOLD TAYLOR
$$
KSC005-013-043-045-059-085-087-091-103-111-117-121-127-131-139-
149-177-197-209-070640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
LYON MARSHALL MIAMI
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
POTTAWATOMIE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-005-021-025-033-037-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095-
101-107-117-129-147-165-177-227-070640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CASS
CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON HOLT JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
MERCER NODAWAY PLATTE
RAY WORTH
$$
NEC067-095-097-127-131-133-147-151-070640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 142
VALID 070440Z - 070540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
491
..JEWELL..05/07/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC053-071-145-159-173-070540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR FREMONT PAGE
RINGGOLD TAYLOR
$$
KSC005-013-043-045-059-085-087-091-103-111-117-121-127-131-139-
149-177-197-209-070540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
LYON MARSHALL MIAMI
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
POTTAWATOMIE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-005-021-025-033-037-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095-
101-107-117-129-147-165-177-227-070540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CASS
CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON HOLT JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
MERCER NODAWAY PLATTE
RAY WORTH
$$
NEC067-095-097-127-131-133-147-151-070540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 142
VALID 070335Z - 070440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/07/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC053-071-145-159-173-070440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR FREMONT PAGE
RINGGOLD TAYLOR
$$
KSC005-013-043-045-059-085-087-091-103-111-117-121-127-131-139-
149-177-197-209-070440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
LYON MARSHALL MIAMI
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
POTTAWATOMIE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-005-021-025-033-037-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095-
101-107-117-129-147-165-177-227-070440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CASS
CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON HOLT JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
MERCER NODAWAY PLATTE
RAY WORTH
$$
NEC067-095-097-127-131-133-147-151-070440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.