Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 835 AM UNTIL 100
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...NARROW LINE OF TSTMS ALREADY PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE
AROUND SHV NEAR SUNRISE MAY SUSTAIN INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION AS FRONT
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUSTAIN SMALL BOWING STRUCTURES
AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT HP-SUPERCELLS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LINE. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PARAMOUNT THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 762 TORNADO AR LA MS 091335Z - 091800Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50ENE PBF/PINE BLUFF AR/ - 30S IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /54ESE LIT - 31W AEX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 34438998 31299200 31299419 34439226
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 762 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 762
VALID 091730Z - 091800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ESF TO
50 SW MEM.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 762 PROBABLY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT SPREADING INTO WW 763 BY 09/18Z.
..KERR..10/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 762
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC021-025-029-035-041-059-065-107-123-091800-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN LA SALLE
MADISON TENSAS WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-027-053-055-083-119-125-133-135-149-151-091800-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE QUITMAN
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
WARREN WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 762
VALID 091625Z - 091740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE POE
TO 50 ENE PBF.
..KERR..10/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 762
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-017-041-043-079-095-107-091740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY CHICOT
DESHA DREW LINCOLN
MONROE PHILLIPS
$$
LAC021-025-029-035-041-043-059-065-067-083-107-123-127-091740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT
LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC011-027-053-055-083-119-125-133-135-149-151-091740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE QUITMAN
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
WARREN WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 762
VALID 091550Z - 091640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW POE TO
20 NNE PBF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2094.
..KERR..10/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 762
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-017-041-043-079-095-107-091640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CHICOT DESHA DREW
LINCOLN MONROE PHILLIPS
$$
LAC021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-083-107-
111-123-127-091640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS
UNION WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC011-027-053-055-083-119-125-133-135-149-151-091640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE QUITMAN
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
WARREN WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 762
VALID 091440Z - 091540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..10/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 762
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-053-069-079-095-103-
107-139-091540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA
DREW GRANT JEFFERSON
LINCOLN MONROE OUACHITA
PHILLIPS UNION
$$
LAC013-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-
073-081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-091540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RED RIVER RICHLAND
SABINE TENSAS UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC011-027-053-055-083-119-125-133-135-149-151-091540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE QUITMAN
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
WARREN WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.