Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY EVENING FROM 715 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA TO 40 MILES WEST OF ORANGEBURG SOUTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...WW 434...WW
435...WW 436...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS...SOME WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSEWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF A
N-S BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL SC. STRONG SURFACE HEATING EARLIER IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ALONG THE WWD MOVING BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33015.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 437 SEVERE TSTM SC 162315Z - 170300Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
45NE CAE/COLUMBIA SC/ - 40W OGB/ORANGEBURG SC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM EITHER SIDE /40NE CAE - 34ESE IRQ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33015.
LAT...LON 33937998 33008098 33908211 34848113
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 437 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 437
VALID 170225Z - 170300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 437 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 170300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166.
..GRAMS..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...CAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 437
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-061-063-065-071-075-
079-081-085-170300-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AIKEN BAMBERG BARNWELL
CALHOUN CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON
EDGEFIELD FAIRFIELD KERSHAW
LANCASTER LEE LEXINGTON
MCCORMICK NEWBERRY ORANGEBURG
RICHLAND SALUDA SUMTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 437
VALID 170035Z - 170140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...CAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 437
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-061-063-065-071-075-
079-081-085-170140-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AIKEN BAMBERG BARNWELL
CALHOUN CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON
EDGEFIELD FAIRFIELD KERSHAW
LANCASTER LEE LEXINGTON
MCCORMICK NEWBERRY ORANGEBURG
RICHLAND SALUDA SUMTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.