Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF EMPORIA
KANSAS TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 898...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE FRONT IN
ERN KS AND FARTHER E IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS WRN MO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NEWD AND INTERACT WITH A MORE E-W ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE MO RIVER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT
PARTICULARLY LARGE /MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG/...PROFILES ARE MOIST
AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY /EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 200-250 M2/S2/. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO
STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 899 TORNADO KS MO 122130Z - 130300Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20N EMP/EMPORIA KS/ - 35ENE SZL/KNOB NOSTER MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /70ESE SLN - 35W COU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21025.
LAT...LON 39209618 39499294 38339294 38049618
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 899 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 899
VALID 130230Z - 130300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE EMP TO
20 WSW OJC TO 40 NE CNU.
WW 899 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z.
..GUYER..09/13/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 899
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-031-059-130300-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY FRANKLIN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 899
VALID 130130Z - 130240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE EMP TO
10 NW OJC TO 35 NE MKC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255
..GUYER..09/13/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 899
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-031-059-091-107-121-209-130240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY FRANKLIN
JOHNSON LINN MIAMI
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC033-095-107-177-130240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL JACKSON LAFAYETTE
RAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 899
VALID 130030Z - 130140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE EMP TO
10 WSW MKC TO 30 NE MKC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255
..GUYER..09/13/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 899
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-031-059-091-107-121-209-130140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY FRANKLIN
JOHNSON LINN MIAMI
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC013-033-037-053-083-089-095-101-107-159-177-195-130140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES CARROLL CASS
COOPER HENRY HOWARD
JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
PETTIS RAY SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 899
VALID 122335Z - 130040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..09/12/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 899
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-031-045-059-087-091-103-107-111-121-139-177-209-130040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON
MIAMI OSAGE SHAWNEE
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC013-033-037-047-053-083-089-095-101-107-159-165-177-195-
130040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES CARROLL CASS
CLAY COOPER HENRY
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
LAFAYETTE PETTIS PLATTE
RAY SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.