Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF ESCANABA MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSHKOSH
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING QUICKLY WITHIN WEAK TO MODEST
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LIFT WITH THE
TROUGH AND CONTINUING INCREASE IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
ALLOW ONGOING ACTIVITY TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.
DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS LIKELY RESPONDING BY
BECOMING MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED. SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HIGH/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
SPREADS/DEVELOPS EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33035.
...CARBIN
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF ESCANABA MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSHKOSH
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING QUICKLY WITHIN WEAK TO MODEST
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LIFT WITH THE
TROUGH AND CONTINUING INCREASE IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
ALLOW ONGOING ACTIVITY TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.
DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS LIKELY RESPONDING BY
BECOMING MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED. SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HIGH/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
SPREADS/DEVELOPS EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33035.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 785 SEVERE TSTM MI WI LM 011755Z - 012300Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNE ESC/ESCANABA MI/ - 30SW OSH/OSHKOSH WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /28E SAW - 35ENE DLL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33035.
LAT...LON 46388523 43658756 43659037 46388816
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 785 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 785
VALID 012140Z - 012240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MTW
TO 10 E OSH TO 40 NE GRB TO 25 SW ESC TO 25 ENE IMT TO 10 SW MQT.
..MEAD..08/01/08
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...APX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 785
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-041-103-109-153-012240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER DELTA MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-015-029-061-071-012240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET DOOR
KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC
$$
LMZ221-248-250-261-362-364-366-521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-
012240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5NM
OFF SHORE TO THE MID LINE OF THE LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5NM OFF SHORE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 785
VALID 012100Z - 012240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE VOK TO
40 NNE GRB TO 5 ENE IMT TO 20 NW IMT.
..SPC..08/01/08
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...APX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 785
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-041-043-071-103-109-153-012240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER DELTA DICKINSON
IRON MARQUETTE MENOMINEE
SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-015-029-039-047-061-071-077-087-117-139-012240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET DOOR
FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE KEWAUNEE
MANITOWOC MARQUETTE OUTAGAMIE
SHEBOYGAN WINNEBAGO
$$
LMZ221-248-250-261-362-364-366-521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-
643-669-012240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5NM
OFF SHORE TO THE MID LINE OF THE LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5NM OFF SHORE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 785
VALID 012000Z - 012140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/01/08
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...APX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 785
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-041-043-071-103-109-153-012140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER DELTA DICKINSON
IRON MARQUETTE MENOMINEE
SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-015-029-037-039-041-047-061-067-071-075-077-078-083-087-
097-115-117-135-137-139-012140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET DOOR
FLORENCE FOND DU LAC FOREST
GREEN LAKE KEWAUNEE LANGLADE
MANITOWOC MARINETTE MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE
PORTAGE SHAWANO SHEBOYGAN
WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
$$
LMZ221-248-250-261-362-364-366-521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-
643-669-012140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5NM
OFF SHORE TO THE MID LINE OF THE LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5NM OFF SHORE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 785
VALID 011900Z - 012040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/01/08
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...APX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 785
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-041-043-071-103-109-153-012040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER DELTA DICKINSON
IRON MARQUETTE MENOMINEE
SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-015-029-037-039-041-047-061-067-071-075-077-078-083-087-
097-115-117-135-137-139-012040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET DOOR
FLORENCE FOND DU LAC FOREST
GREEN LAKE KEWAUNEE LANGLADE
MANITOWOC MARINETTE MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE
PORTAGE SHAWANO SHEBOYGAN
WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
$$
LMZ221-248-250-261-362-364-366-521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-
643-669-012040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5NM
OFF SHORE TO THE MID LINE OF THE LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5NM OFF SHORE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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