Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES NORTH OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 292. WATCH NUMBER 292 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
335 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW 295...
DISCUSSION...POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION MAY BE UNFOLDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN AR...EWD TO NWRN/CNTRL MS THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
ACROSS KS/MO AND ASCENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
WARM FRONT NOW BISECTING AR NW-SE HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY DAYLONG
STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. AS
STRONGER FORCING NOW EMERGES WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH...RESIDUAL WEAK INHIBITION SHOULD BE REMOVED AND ALLOW FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS/SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN
UNPERTURBED AIR MASS ACROSS ERN/SERN OK WILL ENCOUNTER MOIST LOW
LEVEL ELY/SELY FLOW NEAR THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS AR
SHORTLY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS THE REST
OF THE WARM SECTOR...WILL SUPPORT LONG-LIVED UPDRAFT ROTATION. A
CORRIDOR OF GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO INTENSE LOW LEVEL STORMS
ROTATION MAY EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE THREAT OF ONE
OR TWO LONGER-LIVED STRONG TORNADOES WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 296 TORNADO AR MS 102035Z - 110300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
65NNW TXK/TEXARKANA AR/ - 35N GWO/GREENWOOD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /52NNW TXK - 34NNE SQS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
REPLACES WW 292..AR LA MS
LAT...LON 35409444 35099008 32919008 33229444
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 296 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 296
VALID 102205Z - 102340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JPR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-023-025-027-039-041-043-045-051-053-
057-059-061-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-091-095-097-099-103-105-
109-113-117-119-125-127-133-139-145-147-149-102340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MILLER MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PERRY PIKE POLK
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEVIER UNION
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MSC011-015-043-051-053-083-133-151-102340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS LEFLORE
SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (60%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (70%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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