Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
MUCH OF NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 130 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
AINSWORTH NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELL KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 228...WW 230...
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND CENTRAL KS...INCLUDING A LONG-LIVED
TORNADIC SUPERCELL NEAR GBD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH A MOIST...
UNSTABLE...AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 231 TORNADO KS NE 050630Z - 051300Z
AXIS..115 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NE ANW/AINSWORTH NE/ - 30ESE RSL/RUSSELL KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 100NM E/W /27NE ANW - 35WSW SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
LAT...LON 42869729 38669616 38660044 42860183
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 231 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 231
VALID 051205Z - 051340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BIE
TO 50 SSW HSI TO 35 ENE MCK TO 10 SW BUB TO 25 SSE YKN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 697
..CARBIN..05/05/07
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC001-003-011-019-023-027-035-037-039-047-053-059-061-067-073-
077-079-081-083-093-095-097-099-109-119-121-125-129-133-137-139-
141-143-151-155-159-163-167-169-175-179-181-183-185-051340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE
BUFFALO BUTLER CEDAR
CLAY COLFAX CUMING
DAWSON DODGE FILLMORE
FRANKLIN GAGE GOSPER
GREELEY HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEARNEY LANCASTER
MADISON MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PAWNEE PHELPS
PIERCE PLATTE POLK
SALINE SAUNDERS SEWARD
SHERMAN STANTON THAYER
VALLEY WAYNE WEBSTER
WHEELER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 231
VALID 051055Z - 051140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MHK TO
30 ENE MCK TO 10 WSW BUB TO 15 SSE YKN.
..CARBIN..05/05/07
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC089-157-201-051140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEWELL REPUBLIC WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-003-011-019-023-027-035-037-039-053-059-061-067-071-073-
077-079-081-083-093-095-097-099-109-119-121-125-129-133-137-139-
141-143-151-155-159-163-167-169-175-179-181-183-185-051140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE
BUFFALO BUTLER CEDAR
CLAY COLFAX CUMING
DODGE FILLMORE FRANKLIN
GAGE GARFIELD GOSPER
GREELEY HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEARNEY LANCASTER
MADISON MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PAWNEE PHELPS
PIERCE PLATTE POLK
SALINE SAUNDERS SEWARD
SHERMAN STANTON THAYER
VALLEY WAYNE WEBSTER
WHEELER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 231
VALID 050955Z - 051040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SLN
TO 30 ENE MCK TO 35 NW BUB TO 10 SE YKN.
..CARBIN..05/05/07
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC027-029-041-089-123-143-157-183-201-051040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON
JEWELL MITCHELL OTTAWA
REPUBLIC SMITH WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-003-011-019-023-027-035-037-039-041-047-053-059-061-067-
071-073-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-099-107-109-115-119-121-125-
129-133-137-139-141-143-151-155-159-163-167-169-175-179-181-183-
185-051040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE
BUFFALO BUTLER CEDAR
CLAY COLFAX CUMING
CUSTER DAWSON DODGE
FILLMORE FRANKLIN GAGE
GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KEARNEY KNOX LANCASTER
LOUP MADISON MERRICK
NANCE NUCKOLLS PAWNEE
PHELPS PIERCE PLATTE
POLK SALINE SAUNDERS
SEWARD SHERMAN STANTON
THAYER VALLEY WAYNE
WEBSTER WHEELER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 231
VALID 050835Z - 050940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MCK TO
15 ESE LBF TO 20 NNW MHN TO 45 W VTN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 696
..CARBIN..05/05/07
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC027-029-041-053-089-105-123-141-143-147-157-163-167-169-183-
201-050940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON
ELLSWORTH JEWELL LINCOLN
MITCHELL OSBORNE OTTAWA
PHILLIPS REPUBLIC ROOKS
RUSSELL SALINE SMITH
WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-003-009-011-015-017-019-023-027-035-037-039-041-047-053-
059-061-063-065-067-071-073-077-079-081-083-089-093-095-097-099-
103-107-109-113-115-119-121-125-129-133-137-139-141-143-149-151-
155-159-163-167-169-171-175-179-181-183-185-050940-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ANTELOPE BLAINE
BOONE BOYD BROWN
BUFFALO BUTLER CEDAR
CLAY COLFAX CUMING
CUSTER DAWSON DODGE
FILLMORE FRANKLIN FRONTIER
FURNAS GAGE GARFIELD
GOSPER GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HARLAN HOLT
HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KEARNEY KEYA PAHA KNOX
LANCASTER LOGAN LOUP
MADISON MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PAWNEE PHELPS
PIERCE PLATTE POLK
ROCK SALINE SAUNDERS
SEWARD SHERMAN STANTON
THAYER THOMAS VALLEY
WAYNE WEBSTER WHEELER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.