SPC AC 271929

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH
   TO WESTERN PA/NY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower
   Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe
   thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great
   Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is
   apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern
   Midwest to Lower Great Lakes.

   ...Synopsis...
   A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great
   Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the
   Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface
   cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the
   Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the
   central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker
   surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos. 

   ...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes...
   The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at
   least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead
   of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies
   should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing
   in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley.
   While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain,
   potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust
   low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level
   height falls north of the international border, overall setup could
   favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge
   into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in
   upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a
   significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time. 

   ...TX/OK...
   Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period
   along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone.
   This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater
   severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed
   in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist
   through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at
   training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast
   oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable
   scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that
   corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late
   afternoon to early evening.

   ..Grams.. 04/27/2025

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z