SPC AC 261946

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW
   MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico
   into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening.  A
   threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are
   the primary risks.  Scattered damaging gusts are possible this
   afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley.

   ...20z Update...
   The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable
   change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities
   (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and
   into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show
   deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective
   warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary,
   temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s
   dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS
   sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region,
   which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity
   with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should
   favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused
   corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing
   storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for
   additional details.

   ..Moore.. 04/26/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/

   ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
   Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing
   south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and
   westward into parts of eastern NM.  This boundary will likely stall
   later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the
   Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM.  Surface
   observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over
   southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary.  Moderately strong
   west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the
   base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today.

   Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization
   (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into
   the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. 
   Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this
   afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the
   vicinity of the dryline/composite front.  Steep 700-500 mb lapse
   rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary
   layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a
   veering and gradually strengthening wind profile.  Large to very
   large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms.  A
   tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. 
   Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this
   evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts
   of west TX.  

   Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. 
   Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a
   re-invigoration of storms this afternoon.  Damaging gusts appear to
   be the primary risk with these storms.  

   ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
   A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and
   the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward,
   moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the
   remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist
   airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm
   development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward
   throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the
   Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the
   Chesapeake Bay. 

   Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could
   support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and
   evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting
   the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally
   damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany
   the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is
   expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z