SPC AC 091236

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0736 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

   Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
   KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Several tornadoes are possible today over the lower Ohio Valley in
   association with the remnants of Beryl.

   ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a progressive mid-level
   shortwave trough moving east across the lower MO Valley/Ozarks. 
   This mid-level trough is forecast to reach Lake Michigan/Indiana by
   late tonight.  The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid
   Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today.  Ahead of the associated
   surface low, morning surface analysis indicates a reservoir of lower
   70s deg F dewpoints from the IN/OH/KY tri-state south/southwest into
   the Mid South ahead of the low.  Surface streamlines show a warm
   frontal zone extending east-northeast from the low.  The warm front
   will advance northward to near the OH River by mid afternoon and
   serve as a focus for severe thunderstorm potential.

   Despite considerable cloud cover this morning, significant cloud
   breaks south of the warm front and pockets of heating will
   destabilize the airmass from the mid MS Valley to the OH Valley. 
   Moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop in the vicinity of the warm
   front and to its south over parts of KY/TN.  Models imply, and this
   notion is supported by morning observational trends, that a couple
   of convective bands will preferentially favor storm development
   today.  Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
   develop within a moderately unstable airmass (1000-1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE).  Forecast hodographs will become enlarged --especially in
   the warm frontal zone where backed low-level flow will reside-- as a
   30-40 southerly 850-mb LLJ overspreads the OH Valley during the
   afternoon/evening.  One or more bands of quasi-discrete supercells
   are forecast with tornado potential greatest in a southwest to
   northeast corridor paralleling the OH River this afternoon into the
   evening.  

   ...New England...
   A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across
   Quebec and New England during the period.  Heating of a seasonably
   moist airmass by afternoon will aid in the development of scattered
   thunderstorms.  A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient
   supercell or two, will pose an isolated risk for 50-65 mph gusts and
   large hail.

   ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/09/2024

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z