SPC AC 270653

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a
   frontal zone that extends from the southern Plains to the eastern
   Great Lakes.

   ...Discussion...
   A cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday
   afternoon and across New York Tuesday evening. Strong instability
   but weaker shear will be present along the frontal zone in Indiana
   and Ohio, with stronger flow, but weaker instability across New
   York. Therefore, strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado
   threat will exist across New York and western Pennsylvania with a
   greater hail threat likely across Ohio and Indiana.

   Farther west across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Ozarks, the
   front will be more stationary. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be
   present south of this front which should allow for moderate to
   strong instability by Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not
   that strong, but should be sufficient for some multicell clusters
   and perhaps a supercell or two. 

   Persistent isentropic ascent should support thunderstorm activity in
   the vicinity of the front, likely across Oklahoma, on Tuesday. South
   and west of this morning/early afternoon activity is where the best
   environment should be on Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is
   forecast to develop across West Texas and into Northwest Texas
   Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level flow strengthens ahead of the
   approaching trough, effective shear will increase through the day.
   The combination of height falls along the dryline and a
   strengthening low-level jet near sunset should support supercells
   capable of large hail and severe wind gusts by late afternoon to
   evening.

   ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z