SPC AC 230658

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma
   and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening.

   ...Southern Plains...

   Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening
   upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper
   ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating
   will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon
   where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be
   ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to
   what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is
   forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS
   Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late
   afternoon/early evening.

   Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead
   of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across
   western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated
   thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead
   of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts,
   though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through
   700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes
   amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated
   hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger
   updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates
   also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is
   somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing
   mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears
   likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for
   parts of OK/TX.

   ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z