SPC AC 221923

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   KANSAS TO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western
   Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

   ...Southern Kansas southwestward to the Transpecos region of
   Texas...
   Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period
   near a weak front lying roughly west-to-east across Kansas.  As the
   storms sag southeastward with time, the combined front/convective
   outflow will continue making slow southward progress.

   Meanwhile, daytime heating/mixing across the Texas Panhandle/South
   Plains/Transpecos will support eastward mixing of a dryline through
   the afternoon.  With a moist boundary layer east of the dryline,
   heating combined with the steep lapse rates/EML being maintained
   across the area by moderate west-southwesterlies aloft will result
   in moderate destabilization.  This should support isolated storm
   development near the dryline, perhaps most focused where the
   southward-sagging outflow/cold front from Kansas intersects the
   eastward-mixing dryline (somewhere in the southwestern
   Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity).  

   The lack of stronger flow aloft should continue to limit shear
   across the southern Plains region, but veering winds with height
   should again support potential for mid-level rotation.  Attendant
   risks for large hail and locally gusty/damaging winds warrant
   continuation of MRGL/5% severe probability.  Some thought was given
   to a small SLGT risk upgrade, near the intersection of the dryline
   and the outflow-reinforced front mentioned earlier, as backed
   low-level flow may yield a bit more favorable of a wind profile
   locally.  However, with some uncertainty evident with respect to if,
   and how far, the front can progress southward through the day, have
   opted not to upgrade at this time.

   ..Goss.. 04/22/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z