SPC AC 211918

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
   central and southern High Plains on Wednesday.

   ...Central/Southern High Plains...
   Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and
   central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee
   surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A
   stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the
   central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should
   destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak
   perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide
   ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a
   mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this
   GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across
   much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado.
   However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the
   front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the
   state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have
   significant implications on warm sector destabilization and
   northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty
   have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the
   Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas,
   Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the
   dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been
   added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind
   gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening.

   ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025

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