SPC AC 081907

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
   damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to
   the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday
   with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb)
   expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold
   temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which
   will support weak to potentially moderate instability by
   early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height,
   will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall,
   the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit
   a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast
   soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the
   potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts. 

   The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the
   cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern
   Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability
   should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east,
   the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support
   a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio.

   ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z