SPC AC 030730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
   forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max
   will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into
   the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches,
   winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel
   winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys.

   At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into
   central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The
   northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary
   through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave
   developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front,
   with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern
   AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help
   maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level
   shear for a tornado risk.

   ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley...
   Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the
   OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by
   low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg
   MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail.

   Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective
   AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast.
   However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets
   of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western
   TN/northern MS. 

   Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel
   lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days.
   However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells
   and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it
   surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast
   into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk
   area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks.

   ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z