SPC AC 020730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the
   Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the
   lower OH Valley Friday and Friday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen
   Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico.
   Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern
   Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and
   eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside
   along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH
   Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible
   within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large
   buoyancy/shear.

   ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex...
   A band of elevated storms is likely to be ongoing at the start of
   the period from central/northwestern TX into southern OK. Hail
   appears likely with this activity as it meanders along and north of
   the front. The risk for hail and damaging gusts should continue
   eastward as storms shift eastward through the day. Reinforced by
   this convection and increasing low-level cold advection, the front
   should begin to move southward early in the period, assuming a more
   north-south orientation. 

   An elongated surface low should develop along the front backing
   low-level winds through the day. A band of storms will form near the
   front and spread east/northeast into the ArkLaTex into Friday
   evening. Strong southerly flow aloft and a 40-50 kt low-level jet
   may support a mixed convective mode with the potential for all
   hazards.

   ....MS/OH Valleys...
   Embedded within the amplified south/southwesterly flow aloft,
   several perturbations will track north along a well-defined inverted
   trough across the MS and lower OH valleys. A weak wave cyclone,
   associated with the upper jet max, will also shift north providing
   some focus for convective potential through the late afternoon and
   into the overnight hours as it draws deeper moisture northward into
   the OH Valley. Strong low-level warm advection of seasonably deep
   moisture will support moderate buoyancy along and south of the
   front. With weak ascent spread over much of the frontal zone,
   several clusters of strong to severe storms with the potential for
   damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely.

   ..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

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