SPC AC 301930

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon
   across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat
   expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail,
   severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the
   central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially
   significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday
   evening and early Wednesday morning.

   ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest...
   A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great
   Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet
   will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a
   intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains
   during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level
   moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will
   advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with
   a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be
   in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though
   lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline
   development. 

   At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early
   evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of
   the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a
   risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells
   that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic,
   as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase.

   Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional
   storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday
   night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward
   across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions
   remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can
   remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards
   could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms
   may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of
   large hail and locally damaging gusts.

   ..Dean.. 03/30/2025

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