SPC AC 291927

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
   PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the
   Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

   ...Synopsis...
   A surface low is forecast to intensify as it moves northeastward
   from the Lower Great Lakes into southeast Canada through the day
   Monday morning in tandem with a leading shortwave trough. A trailing
   cold front is expected to push east/southeast into the upper OH
   River Valley and lower MS Valley/Southeast early Monday morning as a
   second low-amplitude wave traverses the eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm
   potential will be focused along this front as it continues to push
   into New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and into the southeast states
   through the late afternoon and evening hours. 

   ...Central Gulf States...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing by 12z Monday as a
   squall line forced along the cold front continues to push southeast
   across MS and AL. A combination of rich low-level moisture ahead of
   the line, diurnal heating, strong low to mid-level flow, and broad
   scale ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should help maintain
   convective intensity into the afternoon hours. A corridor of
   damaging/severe winds, and potentially embedded tornadoes, appears
   probable from central MS into AL and western GA.

   ...Central Appalachians...
   Thunderstorm development along the front is expected by early to
   mid-afternoon from the upper OH Valley southward into the
   Mid-Atlantic region. Returning moisture through the Carolinas
   northward into eastern PA/western NY, combined with mid-level lapse
   rates around 7 C/km, should support sufficient buoyancy for deep
   convection, though buoyancy values should diminish with northward
   extent across the central Appalachians. Moderate flow within the
   lowest few kilometers should support a damaging wind threat as
   convection matures along the front across the upper OH Valley.
   Further south, stronger ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave
   should promote better storm organization, including the potential
   for semi-discrete cells and/or organized linear segments.
   Medium-range guidance suggests low-level winds will strengthen
   across the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak secondary low deepens
   through late afternoon in the lee of the Appalachians, which may
   support an enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph and a locally higher
   tornado threat across the Carolinas into VA.

   ..Moore.. 03/29/2025

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