SPC AC 281931

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
   OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
   an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
   Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys.  Very large hail, damaging winds,
   and strong tornadoes are expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will
   move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded
   shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface
   low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front
   will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while
   dryline will be present in East Texas.

   ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley...
   Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm
   activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface
   low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these
   storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact
   destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio.
   Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards,
   but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree
   of surface heating that occurs.

   Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be
   impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone
   where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level
   wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating
   boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to
   it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and
   strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts.

   ...Mid-South...
   Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected
   to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being
   typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an
   elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no
   thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface
   heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the
   cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some
   indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up.
   Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase
   along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk.
   Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas
   given the southward displacement from the surface low. However,
   forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be
   more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even
   without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface
   heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe
   storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread
   damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes.

   ...East Texas/Sabine Valley...
   A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in
   this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse
   rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells
   capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and
   tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and
   lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time.

   ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025

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