SPC AC 280740

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
   an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
   Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys.  Very large hail, damaging winds,
   and strong tornadoes are expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift
   slowly across the central U.S. Sunday.  As this occurs, a deepening
   surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes
   region.  A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the
   central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the
   Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday
   morning.

   ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
   Valleys...
   A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand
   across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the
   advancing cold front.  Daytime heating, and continued northward flux
   of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization.  

   Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri
   northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and
   possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas.  Local
   severe risk may accompany this early-day convection.  The
   aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support
   renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially
   from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading
   eastward/expanding in coverage with time.  

   Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the
   storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist,
   with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing
   substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated --
   hodographs.  Supercells are expected within this environment, and
   very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates
   through the mid troposphere.  Along with the hail risk, damaging
   wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into
   bands occurs.  Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for
   tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived.

   Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. 
   Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio
   Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely
   continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee
   Valley/Gulf Coast states.

   ..Goss.. 03/28/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z