SPC AC 240730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the
   Pacific Northwest on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S.
   Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly
   toward the Atlantic Coast.  Upstream, ridging over the interior West
   will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream,
   a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the
   northwestern states.

   At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting
   into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low
   remains offshore through the period.

   ...Portions of the Northwest...
   As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast,
   cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area,
   atop low 50s surface dewpoints.  This will combine with afternoon
   heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

   Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow
   deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area,
   allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts
   -- potentially including a few rotating storms.  As such, local risk
   for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon
   and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and
   possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening.  While coverage of
   the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk
   appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area.

   ..Goss.. 03/24/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z