Mar 23, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 23 07:30:00 UTC 2025 (20250323 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20250323 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20250323 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20250323 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 230730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for
   Tuesday.

   ...Discussion...
   A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail
   into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday).  Late in the period, height
   falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will
   begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region.

   Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during
   late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface
   front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will
   exist.  Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario.  Greater
   storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle
   vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer
   cools and a low-level jet develops.  While small hail would be
   possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the
   period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk
   for severe-caliber hail.

   ..Goss.. 03/23/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z