SPC AC 210730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN
   TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to
   northeastern Texas may pose a risk for locally damaging winds and
   hail.

   ...Synopsis...
   A short-wave trough crossing the central/northern Plains is forecast
   to evolve into a closed low, that is then progged to drift eastward
   into the Upper Great Lakes region through the period.  As this
   occurs, a surface low -- initially over the Minnesota vicinity --
   will become increasingly occluded, and likewise will drift eastward
   into the Upper Great Lakes.  

   At the surface, a weak triple-point low is forecast to shift
   northeastward across the Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys through the
   day, while a cold front sags southward into western Kentucky/western
   Tennessee/Arkansas/Texas.  By the end of the period, this front
   should extend from western Pennsylvania to the southern
   Appalachians, and then westward into Texas.

   ...East Texas to the Tennessee Valley...
   Daytime heating ahead of the cold front will combine with ample
   warm-sector dewpoints to support airmass destabilization. 
   Mixed-layer CAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg in western Tennessee
   to 1500 J/kg or so into eastern Texas seems likely evolve, and
   should be sufficient to support development of scattered
   strong/locally severe storms.  Updraft intensity will be aided by
   weakly veering/increasing flow with height through the mid
   troposphere, with shear sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts. 
   While a tornado or two may be possible, greater risk appears to be
   hail and locally damaging wind gusts.  This risk should peak through
   late afternoon, after which diurnal cooling/stabilization should
   result in a gradual decrease in storm intensity/severe potential.

   ..Goss.. 03/21/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z