SPC AC 231721

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
   COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern
   Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. 
   Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this
   activity.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad zone of modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail
   across most of the country again on Thursday, though faster flow is
   progged over New England in conjunction with a short-wave trough
   moving eastward across southern Quebec and -- eventually -- northern
   New England.  A second trough, off the West Coast, is expected to
   pivot eastward toward the central and southern California coast
   through the second half of the period.

   At the surface, frontal wave development is forecast along a
   baroclinic zone extending from southwestern Kansas into the Upper
   Midwest, as a mid-level short-wave trough moves through the
   background west-southwesterlies.  By evening, a weak low is forecast
   over the Iowa vicinity, with some southward progression of the
   trailing front across Kansas.  Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to
   mix eastward during the afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and
   South Plains areas, while remaining more stationary but sharpening
   across the Davis Mountains area.  The aforementioned front, and the
   dryline, should both focus diurnal increases in thunderstorm
   activity.

   ...Eastern Colorado and Kansas south across Oklahoma and
   northern/western Texas...
   Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period
   across portions of the MRGL risk area, including western Kansas and
   potentially portions of the Concho Valley area of Texas.  The Texas
   convection is forecast to weaken with time, though the Kansas storms
   -- occurring in the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone -- may
   persist through the day.

   By afternoon, as heating of the moist warm sector contributes to
   moderate destabilization, additional storm
   development/intensification is forecast across southern Kansas, and
   southward along the dryline mixing across western Texas.  While
   deep-layer flow across the region is forecast to remain somewhat
   weak/sub-optimal in terms of more robust severe potential, veering
   winds with height should contribute to ample shear for mid-level
   rotation with developing storms.  Large hail and locally damaging
   winds can be expected with the strongest cells.

   Though tornado risk will remain limited overall, slightly greater
   potential may evolve across the southwestern Kansas/northwestern
   Oklahoma area, and adjacent, eastern portions of the Texas/Oklahoma
   Panhandles.  Here, near a weak low at the intersection of the
   surface front and the dryline, backed low-level flow and slightly
   stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies may support potential for a
   tornado during the afternoon/early evening.

   Storms across this area may congeal/grow upscale during the evening,
   spreading eastward across the Oklahoma/North Texas area as a
   low-level jet nocturnally increases.  Attendant, local risk for
   hail/wind may persist through the evening.

   ..Goss.. 04/23/2025

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