SPC AC 171730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the
   southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late
   Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and
   isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja
   CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba
   into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the
   eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. 

   At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the
   east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the
   Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will
   occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI
   into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress
   south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe
   storms on Friday.

   ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX...
   Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday
   afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the
   approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with
   clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from
   western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and
   wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial
   development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front
   undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across
   OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as
   hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel.  

   Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection
   late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of
   severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized
   wind potential.

   ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley...
   Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by
   midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient
   instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk.  Farther
   south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from
   southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime
   heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate
   scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across
   IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the
   surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A
   brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered
   hail is likely as well.

   ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025

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