Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
22,557
708,678
Wichita, KS...Derby, KS...Winfield, KS...Woodward, OK...Arkansas City, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
72,427
4,879,865
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
SPC AC 150537
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central
Great Plains.
...Synopsis...
A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from
the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A
southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough will drift towards
the southern CA coast. A pair of lee cyclones will develop near the
Black Hills and the CO/KS border area by Wednesday evening.
...Central Great Plains...
Just-in-time modified moisture return from south TX is anticipated
by early evening, yielding potential for isolated high-based
thunderstorm development near the southwest KS/far northwest OK
border area. This portion of the dryline, to the east-southeast of
the aforementioned cyclone, will have the best chance of sustaining
deep convection with overlap of the low-level thermal ridge/weak
buoyancy. Substantial veering of the wind profile with height could
support a high-based supercell or two with severe hail/wind.
The 00Z HRW-FV3 is a distinct outlier in indicating potential for a
discrete supercell deeper into the evening across south-central KS,
that impinges on greater low-level moisture amid enlarged low-level
hodograph curvature. Bulk of guidance otherwise suggests a
substantial increase in MLCIN after sunset as the low-level jet
intensifies from west TX into KS, with convection probably
struggling given the sub-optimal moisture relative to the stout EML.
Elevated convection should form later Wednesday night into early
morning Thursday, along the leading edge of the 700-mb warm front
and towards the exit region of the low-level jet. Although this
convection may remain rooted near 700 mb, favorable speed shear
through the cloud-bearing layer should offer a risk of isolated
severe hail overnight towards the Lower MO Valley.
..Grams.. 04/15/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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