Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Valdosta, GA...Panama City, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
42,611
2,620,107
Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Valdosta, GA...Panama City, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
41,584
2,563,600
Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Valdosta, GA...Panama City, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 121705
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday
morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and
southern Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the
primary threats.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough and associated surface low will
amplify/deepen across the northeast Thursday morning with a trailing
cold front extending southward along the Appalachians and into
southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This front will move
off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday evening with high pressure
building in across much of the eastern CONUS in its wake. Meanwhile,
a strong surface low will approach the northern California/southwest
Oregon Coast during the day Thursday.
...Southeast...
A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from central Georgia and perhaps into South Carolina and
southern North Carolina to the Florida Peninsula. By 12Z the
greatest severe weather threat will likely be focused across
southern Georgia where mid-60s dewpoints are forecast. A strong (50
knot) low-level jet is forecast to be in place at 12Z, but will
weaken through the morning as the primary surface low quickly moves
farther away to the northeast. During this period in the morning
with a strong low-level jet and ample instability, a threat for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain. This
front is expected to move offshore by mid afternoon and thunderstorm
intensity will likely have likely waned by this time due to the
weakening forcing.
...Northern California...
A strong surface low of the northern California coast will result in
favorable shear across much of central and northern California
tomorrow. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across
much of this region with weak instability present. If any pockets of
greater (250-500 J/kg) MLCAPE can develop during the day Thursday
when shear remains strong, a damaging wind gust or tornado is
possible. However, at this time forecast soundings show the greater
instability arriving beneath the upper-level low when shear will
also be reduced. Therefore, given the lack of overlap between
greater instability and shear, no Marginal Risk was added at this
time.
..Bentley.. 02/12/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
| 
)
