SPC AC 261240

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
   OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across
   parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest
   coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far
   north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms
   are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

   ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
   Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively
   enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to
   occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and
   southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue
   east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary
   that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate
   downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next
   several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far
   northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be
   modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the
   shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly
   stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These
   environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for
   severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX.
   Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant
   increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central
   TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a
   greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased
   across eastern OK.  

   Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along
   the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains.
   Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout
   the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a
   tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops
   ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are
   possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough
   expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm
   development across these areas is less certain, with limited
   coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are
   possible with at least a localized threat of large hail,
   strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado.

   ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
   Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
   moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes
   region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this
   shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this
   low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley,
   and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue
   eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant
   surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The
   associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through
   the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the
   Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is
   already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development
   appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the
   period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC
   vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. 

   Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could
   support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and
   evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting
   the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some 
   locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany
   the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is
   expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z.

   ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025

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