Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Chicago, IL...Charlotte, NC...Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...Raleigh, NC...
SPC AC 221617
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the
central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states.
Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west
TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a
developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500
J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline
circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early
evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several
12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over
northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms
reaching central TX overnight.
...IA/MO/IL...
A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning.
The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this
region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave
trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are
expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening,
with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms.
...Southeast States...
A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across
MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along
the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor
mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty
winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today.
..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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