Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Chicago, IL...Charlotte, NC...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...
SPC AC 220527
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the southern and central Plains.
...Southern/Central Plains...
Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS
today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near
the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances
and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions.
Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later
today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return,
mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow
will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough
gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While
moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually
increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near
the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable
for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of
increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest
adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated
supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary
concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a
weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours.
...Elsewhere...
Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the
lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While
deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are
expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg
and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the
primary risks.
Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the
weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal
heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and
forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell
updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
| 
)
