Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 211624
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast.
Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks.
...Upper OH Valley...
Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front
sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present
ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately
ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting
scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with
dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values
generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level
winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few
organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details.
...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN...
The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across
west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front
from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although
considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models
suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the
late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust
updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and
large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall
organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce
gusty winds and hail.
...SD...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY
approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and
western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance
that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Thornton.. 04/21/2025
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