Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 151614
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of
the Northeast.
...Northeast...
Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the
eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot
eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the
left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered,
low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon.
Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal
heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to
steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level
winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective
wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any
small clusters/lines that can evolve.
...Four Corners into southern Colorado...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture
atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V
profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be
entirely ruled out.
..Weinman.. 04/15/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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