Apr 15, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 15 05:46:20 UTC 2025 (20250415 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250415 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20250415 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20250415 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20250415 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20250415 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150546

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms will be possible today in parts of the Northeast, Four
   Corners, south-central Rockies and from western Nevada into
   California. No severe weather is expected.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward into the south-central
   U.S. today, as a trough moves into the eastern states. Isolated
   thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Northeast as surface
   temperatures warm, and as a band of strong large-scale ascent moves
   from west to east across the region. In the western states, a
   shortwave trough will move northeastward into the Four Corners.
   Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development will take
   place today from the Four Corners eastward into the south-central
   Rockies. A few storms may also develop from the Sierras into
   northern California, ahead a mid-level low that will approach the
   coast of California. No severe weather is expected today or tonight
   across the continental U.S.

   ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/15/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z