Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 050532
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley
northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts will be possible
in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
...Sabine River Valley to Kentucky...
Seasonally strong upper trough is digging southeast across the
southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. This feature should shift east
into the southern Plains during the latter half of the period as a
500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into
south-central TX by 06/00z, then into western AR by the end of the
period. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is expected
to develop in the lee of the higher terrain over the lower Rio
Grande Valley, then track northeast along the boundary into the
lower Sabine River Valley by late afternoon.
High-PW air mass extends across the northwestern Gulf Basin, arcing
northeast across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Surface dew
points are well into the lower 70s into western MS, and this will
lead to a corridor of SBCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg across this
portion of the warm sector.
Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection extends
along/north of the front from AR into western KY. This zone will
gradually sag southeast through the period and will continue to
serve as a focus for robust convection. Additionally, an expanding
area of elevated convection is maturing ahead of the main short wave
across west TX, and these storms will spread northeast with an
attendant threat for hail into the early part of the period.
Very strong shear is noted along/ahead of the frontal zone, and will
continue to support organized, long-lived supercells. Current
thinking is convection will be most concentrated along the warm
front early, but diurnal heating will contribute to destabilization
such that scattered-numerous storms should evolve along the cold
front as it surges east across TX into LA, during the evening hours.
Environmental parameters favor tornadic supercells, and strong
tornadoes are certainly possible, in addition to large hail and
wind.
..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/05/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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