Mar 19, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 19 05:55:20 UTC 2025 (20250319 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250319 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20250319 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 21,198 1,977,796 Peoria, IL...Decatur, IL...Champaign, IL...Bloomington, IL...Terre Haute, IN...
SLIGHT 67,372 17,131,969 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Fort Wayne, IN...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...
MARGINAL 240,947 35,414,166 Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Milwaukee, WI...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20250319 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 21,236 1,961,923 Peoria, IL...Decatur, IL...Champaign, IL...Bloomington, IL...Terre Haute, IN...
10 % 21,081 1,903,254 Peoria, IL...Decatur, IL...Champaign, IL...Bloomington, IL...Normal, IL...
5 % 67,368 17,203,441 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Fort Wayne, IN...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...
2 % 75,434 12,541,623 St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Dayton, OH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20250319 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 88,542 19,184,277 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Fort Wayne, IN...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...
5 % 241,299 35,364,473 Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Milwaukee, WI...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20250319 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 31,714 3,842,765 Aurora, IL...Joliet, IL...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...Decatur, IL...
5 % 224,522 35,581,781 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Nashville, TN...St. Louis, MO...
   SPC AC 190555

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
   ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
   parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to
   early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind
   gusts will be possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning
   to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak
   along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will
   translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a
   surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will
   move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. 

   ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western
   Indiana...
   A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today.
   Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the
   day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor
   ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some
   clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and
   destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows
   what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level
   temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb)
   which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating.
   Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect
   thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and
   northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of
   these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg
   MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all
   severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs,
   such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile
   environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+
   J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment
   with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around
   2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in
   the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would
   be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While
   uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of
   clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade
   seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable
   of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile
   environment.

   ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL...
   Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold
   front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during
   the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition.
   Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells
   capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana
   before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio
   border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across
   KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s
   to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered
   supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging
   wind gusts during the evening.

   ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z