Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
14,827
1,117,982
Columbus, GA...Dothan, AL...Auburn, AL...Phenix City, AL...Opelika, AL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 130550
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts
are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia,
and parts of the Florida Panhandle today.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains
and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be
ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern
Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this
system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to
move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending
across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will
shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the
period.
...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia
and the western Florida Panhandle...
Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous
period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western
Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle
to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity
continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk
of hail and damaging wind early in the period.
By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into
western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with
steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region,
additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with
stronger cores.
...Southern Arizona...
As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow
aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward
across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow
may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe
limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would
suggest the severe threat will remain low.
..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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