SPC AC 041257

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

   Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
   SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds,
   and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the
   southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A
   couple strong tornadoes will be possible.

   ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern
   Appalachians/Southeast...
   Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough
   moving east across the central and southern High Plains this
   morning.  Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the
   larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a
   100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX
   through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South
   tonight.  Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into
   the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east
   across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight.  

   A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX
   north-northeastward into eastern OK.  Intense shear profiles within
   an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts
   with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves
   east across eastern OK/TX this morning.  A risk for a few tornadoes
   will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across
   the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day.  Forecast
   soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale
   rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can
   develop ahead of the squall line.  Strong tornado potential exists
   given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal
   destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in
   storm intensity/coverage.  

   This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves
   east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley.  A
   continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the
   primary severe hazards.  Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk
   equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and
   southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat
   appear greatest.  

   ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois...
   As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through
   the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying
   the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates.  Any daytime heating
   in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern
   Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped
   convective redevelopment.  Assuming this scenario manifests, a
   couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for
   hail/wind and possibly a tornado.  Any such risk would taper by
   evening.

   Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated
   storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local
   risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon
   hours.

   ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025

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