SPC AC 291957

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

   Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
   central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight.

   ...20Z Update...
   The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were
   needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a
   plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime
   heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued
   moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates
   should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the
   overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below.

   ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/

   ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma...
   A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest
   Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift
   generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually
   taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening
   southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary
   layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F
   dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast
   will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated
   thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward
   the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit
   storm intensity.

   By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing
   for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific
   cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from
   central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb
   temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for
   severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage
   is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight
   time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A
   surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on
   the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A
   marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop
   with this activity.

   ...Southern New York/southern New England...
   Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase
   to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or
   around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective
   influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well.

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