SPC AC 070728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a couple of damaging
   gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio
   Valley on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will traverse the OH Valley as a mid-level
   anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West on Tuesday.
   Given available moisture and instability, thunderstorms are expected
   across the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well as the Intermountain
   west (due to orographic lift). The best chance for any strong to
   severe thunderstorms will be in association with the remnants of
   Beryl, which are poised to track northeastward toward the Mid-South
   into the OH Valley in tandem with the mid-level trough. A couple of
   strong storms are also possible over New England. However, given
   neutral heights and potentially limited buoyancy, confidence is too
   low for introducing severe probabilities at this time.

   ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley...
   The remnants of Beryl should track northeastward as a strengthening
   and deepening surface cyclone while coupling with the mid-level
   trough on Tuesday. Guidance consensus depicts rich low-level
   moisture advecting ahead of the surface low to foster at least
   1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Southeasterly
   low-level flow will quickly veer and strengthen with height to
   support enlarged, curved hodographs ahead of the surface low. As
   such, at least a few damaging gusts and/or tornadoes are possible
   with the stronger, more sustained storms that can develop. It is
   possible that greater severe probabilities may be needed in later
   outlooks to address the severe threat. However, too many
   discrepancies exist between deterministic medium-range guidance
   members in terms of the placement and timing of the surface low and
   associated buoyancy/shear parameter spaces to delineate higher
   severe probabilities at this time.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024

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