SPC AC 110729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be
   possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains and mid
   Mississippi Valley. Marginally severe storms will also be possible
   in parts of the Great Lakes and central High Plains.

   ...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
   An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region
   on Thursday, as a cold front advances southward into the central
   Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Along and
   to the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and
   lower 70s F, will likely contribute to the development of moderate
   instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the
   day, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, with
   several clusters of strong to potentially severe storms moving
   southeastward across the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and
   southern Great Lakes region. 

   The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be from
   northeast Kansas east-northeastward into north-central Illinois
   where the models suggest that the strongest instability will
   develop. Along the front, the NAM has the strongest instability in
   northeast Kansas, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4000 to
   5000 J/kg range in the late afternoon. At that time, the NAM
   forecast sounding at Kansas City has gradually veering winds with
   height, 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates
   around 7.5 C/km. This environment would support a potential for
   supercells with large hail. However, with northwest mid-level flow
   aloft, persistent convective clusters may tend to organize into line
   segments with wind-damage potential. The chance for severe wind
   gusts could extend east-northeastward along a narrow corridor of
   instability into north-central Illinois, northern Indiana and Lower
   Michigan. Due to more widely-spaced storms in the Great Lakes
   region, the threat may be more isolated with northeastward extent.

   ...Central High Plains...
   An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the
   Rockies on Thursday. A narrow axis of maximized instability and
   moisture is forecast by afternoon to the east of the ridge from
   northern Kansas into northeast Colorado and far southwest Wyoming.
   As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms may develop near the instability axis. Although flow
   is forecast to be relatively weak in the low-levels, speed shear in
   the mid-levels could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail
   and/or marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats.

   ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024

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